Prof. Guonan MA

Visiting Professor in Economics
Research Director of Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management

Faculty of Business Administration
University of Macau, E22
Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau, China

Contact Information

Room:E22-G001g
Telephone:(853) 8822-4290
E-mail:guonanma
  • Ph.D. in economics, University of Pittsburgh, USA, 1990
  • B. A. in economics, Beijing University, China, 1982
  • Research Director and Visiting Professor, Academy of Asia-Pacific Academy of Economics and Management, University of Macau (2017 – now)
  • Visiting Scholar and Non-Resident Scholar, Banque de France, University of Technology Sydney, Reserve Bank of Australia, Fung Global Institute, and Bruegel (2014 – 2017)
  • Senior Economist and now BIS pensioner, Bank for International Settlements (The BIS Asian Office in Hong Kong) (2001 – 2014)
  • Head of North Asia Economics Research, Merrill Lynch International (Asia) (1999 – 2001)
  • Co-Head of Asia Pacific Economic Research, Salomon Smith Barney/Citigroup (Hong Kong) (1997 – 1999)
  • Asia Regional Economist, Bankers Trust (Asia) (1995 – 1997)
  • China Economist, Peregrine Securities (Hong Kong) (1994 – 1995)
  • Lecturer and Research Fellow of Economics, The Australian National University (1990 – 1994)
  • Lecturer of Economics, Beijing University (1982 – 1984)
2017“China’s debt challenge: stylized facts, drivers and policy implications”, The Singapore Economic Review, 2017, Vol 61, No. 1, pp 1-23 (co-authored with James Laurenceson).
2017“Rebalancing China’s Economy: Challenges and International Implications”, China & the World Economy, 2017, Vol 25, No 1, pp 1-31 (co-authored with Ivan Roberts and Gerard Kelly).
2015“Transforming central bank liabilities into government debt: the case of China”, China & World Economy, 2015, Vol 23, No. 4, pp 1-18,  (co-authored with R McCauley).
2015“對中國基礎通貨膨脹指標的研究”,《財務與金融》, 2015, No. 5, pp 1-10 (co-authored with M Amstad and Ye Huan).
2014“Non-deliverable forwards: 2013 and beyond”, BIS Quarterly Review, March 2014  pp 75-88, March (co-authored with R McCauley and S Chang). https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1403h.htm .
2014“Global and Euro Imbalances: China and Germany”, China & World Economy, January 2014, Vol 22, No 1, pp 1-29, (co-authored with R McCauley).
2013“Interbank volatility in China”, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2013, pp 9-10. https://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt1309u.htm
2013“Is China or India more financially open?”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 2013, No 39, pp 6-27 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2013“China’s evolving reserve requirements”, Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, 2013, Vol 11, No. 2, pp 117-137 (co-authored with X Yan and X Liu).
2013“The roles of saving, investment and the renminbi in rebalancing the Chinese economy”, Review of International Economics, 2013, Vol 21, No 1, 72–84 (co-authored with R McCauley and L Lam).
2012中國法定存款準備金政策動機與貨幣政策效應, 《金融研究》, 2012 年第12 期, pp 38-53. 《金融研究》2012年年度優秀論文.
2012“China’s reserve requirements: practices, effects and implications”, in China Economic Policy Review, 2012, Vol 1, No 2 pp 1-34 (co-authored with X Yan and Liu Xi).
2011“La gestion du renminbi depuis 2005“, in Revue d’économie financière, “Finance Chinoise”, 2011, no 102, June, pp 163-181 (co-authored R McCauley).
2011“Why is the Chinese Saving Rate so High?”, World Economics, 2011, Vol 12, No 1, pp 1 – 26, (co-authored with Wang Yi).
2011“Renminbising China’s Foreign Assets”, Pacific Economic Review, 2011, Vol 16, No 1, pp 1-17 (co-authored with YW Cheung and R McCauley).
2011“The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability”, Journal of The Japanese and International Economies, March, No 25, pp 23-38 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2010“China’s high saving rate: myth and reality”, International Economics, 2010, No. 122, pp 5-40 (co-authored with Wang Yi). http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/publications/economieinter/rev122/ei122a.htm .
2009“China’s Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position”, China & World Economy, 2009, Vol 17, No 5, pp 1-21 (co-authored with H Zhou).
2009“Renminbisation of China’s international assets” Revue D’économie Financière, 2009, November issue, pp 135-155 (“Renminbisation des actifs internationaux de la Chine”), (co-authored with R McCauley).
2008“The efficacy of China’s capital controls — Evidence from price and flow data”, Pacific Economic Review, 2008, Vol 13, No 1, pp 104-123 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2007“Recent episodes of credit card distress in Asia”, BIS Quarterly Review, June 2007, pp 55-68, (co-authored with Taesoo Kang). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0706.htm)
2007“Who pays China’s bank restructuring bill?”, Asian Economic Papers, 2007, 6 (1), pp 46-71, MIT Press.
2006“Sharing China’s bank restructuring bill”, China & World Economy, 2006, Vol 14, No.3, pp 19-37 ( https://www.bis.org/repofficepubl/apresearch0605ma.pdf ).
2005“Corporate bond markets in Asia”, BIS Quarterly Review, December, pp. 83-93 (co-authored with J Gyntelberg and E Remonola) (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0512.htm)
2005“Managing the renminbi regime shift”, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2005, pp.7-8 (co-authored C Ho, R McCauley and E Remonola). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0509.htm)
2005“Opening markets through a regional bond fund: lessons from ABF2”, BIS Quarterly Review, June 2005, pp 81-92 (co-authored with E Remonola). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0506.htm).
2005“Trading Asian currencies”, BIS Quarterly Review, March 2005, pp 49-58 (co-authored with C Ho and R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0503.htm )
2004“The markets for non-deliverable forwards in Asian currencies”, BIS Quarterly Review, June 2004, pp 81-94 (co-authored C Ho and R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0406.htm )
2002“Rising foreign currency liquidity of banks in China”, BIS Quarterly Review, September 2002, pp 67-74 (co-authored R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0209.htm )
2002“Following Chinese banks’ foreign currency liquidity”, BIS Quarterly Review, June 2002, pp 18-19 (co-authored with R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/qtrpdf/r_qt0206.htm )
1993“Economic growth and macroeconomic instability in China”, The Journal of Asian Economics, 1993, V. 4, No. 1, pp 5-24 (co-authored with R Garnaut)
1993“How rich is China?: evidence from the food economy”,  The Australian Journal of Chinese Affairs, 1993, No. 30, pp 121-146 (co-authored with R Garnaut).
1993“Macroeconomic disequiibrium, structural changes, the household savings and money demand in China”, The Journal of Development Economics, 1993, Vol 41, No 1, pp 115-136.
2017Chinese Capital account Liberalisation, Commissioned Report for Australian Centre for Financial Studies, Monash University, June 2017 (co-authored with Rodney Maddock). https://australiancentre.com.au/publication/chinese-capital-account-liberalisation/
2016“A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Challenges and International Implications”, in Reserve Bank of Australia 2016 China Conference volume Structural Change in China: Implications for Australia and the World, pp177-237, June 2016 (co-authored with Ivan Roberts and Gerard Kelly) http://www.rba.gov.au/publications/confs/2016/pdf/rba-conference-volume-2016-ma-roberts-kelly.pdf.
2016Renminbi Rising: A New Global Monetary System Emerges, Wiley Publisher, 2016 (Amazon: http://www.amazon.com/Renminbi-Rising-Global-Monetary-Emerges/dp/1119218969 ). (co-authored with William Overholt and CK Law).
2015“A Compelling Case for Chinese Monetary Easing”, in China’s Domestic Transformation in a Global Context, edited by Ligang Song, Ross Garnaut, Cai Fang and Lauren Johnston, the Australian National University Press, Canberra, Australia, pp 43-66, July 2015 (http://press.anu.edu.au/titles/china-update-series/chinas-domestic-transformation-in-a-global-context/).
2014“Internationalisation of emerging market currencies”, in BIS Papers No 78, The Transmission of Unconventional Monetary Policy to the Emerging Markets, pp 71-86, Basel, 2014 (https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap78d_rh.pdf ).
2014“Financial openness of China and India — Implications for capital account liberalisation”, in L Song, R Garnaut, and Cai Fang (ed) Deepening Reform for China’s Long-Term Growth and Development, Australian National University Press, 2014. http://press.anu.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/ch12.pdf.
2014“Understanding the monetary policy rule in China: what is the role of inflation?”, in Globalisation, Inflation and Monetary Policy in Asia and the Pacific, BIS Papers No 77, pp 159-170, March 2014 (co-authored with E Girardin and S Lunven). https://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap77l_rh.pdf
2014“China’s High Saving Puzzle”, in S Fan, R Kanbur, S Wei, X Zhang (ed) The Oxford Companion to the Economics of China, Oxford University Press, pp 190-193, 2014 (co-authored with Dennis Yang).
2013“Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany”, in M Balling and E Gnan (ed) SUERF 50 Years of Money and Finance: Lessons and Challenges, pp 43-72, 2013 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2013“How much do we know about China’s high saving rate?” in YW Cheung and J de Haan (ed) The Evolving Role of China in the Global Economy, the MIT Press, pp 147-180, 2013 (co-authored with Wang Yi).
2012“Narrowing China’s current account surplus: the roles of saving, investment and the renminbi”, in H McKay and L Song (ed), Rebalancing and Sustaining Growth in China, The Australian National University Press, pp 65-91, 2012 (co-authored with R McCauley and L Lam). http://press.anu.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/ch041.pdf. The Chinese version link is http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p260341/pdf/ch041.pdf .
2012“China’s saving and exchange rate in global rebalancing”, in M Balling and D Llwellyn (ed), New Paradigms in Monetary and Policy? SUERF Studies, pp 123-140, 2013 (co-authored with R McCauley). (http://www.suerf.org/index.php?option=com_k2&view=item&id=254:2012-1&Itemid=133 )
2011“Exchange rates and monetary policy frameworks in EMEs”, in The influence of external factors on monetary policy frameworks and operations, BIS Papers No 57, pp 37-63, October 2011 (co-authored with A Filardo and D Mihaljek). (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap57.htm )
2011“Growing Asian credit card markets amid the global financial crisis”, in YW Cheung and G Ma (ed) Asia and China and the Global Economy, World Scientific Publishing, pp 283-318, 2011 (co-authored with Taesoo Kang).
2011“Why does China attempt to internationalise the renminbi?” in J Golley and L Song (ed) Rising China: Global Challenges and Opportunities, pp 45-68, Australian National University Press, Canberra, 2011 (co-authored with YW Cheung and R McCauley). (http://epress.anu.edu.au/china_update2011/pdf/ch04.pdf)
2011“The implications of renminbi basket management for Asian currency stability”, in YW Cheung, Vikas Kakkar and G Ma (ed) Frontiers of Economics and Globalization, Volume 9: The Evolving Role of Asia in Global Finance, Bingley: Emerald Press, pp 97-121, 2011 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2009“China’s Large and Rising Net Foreign Asset Position”, in “China’s growing external wealth: evolution and implications”, in R Garnuat, L Song and W Woo (ed), China’s New Place in a World in Crisis: Economic, Geopolitical and the Environmental Dimensions, Australian National University Press, 2009.
2009“Resisting financial globalisation in Asia”, in Financial Globalisation and Emerging Market Economies: Proceedings of International Symposium organised by Bank of Thailand, pp, 177-222, 2009 (co-authored with R McCauley).
2009“Learning by doing in market reform: lessons from a regional bond fund”, (co-authored with E Remonola), in K Hamada, B Reszat and U Volz (ed) Towards Monetary and Financial Integration in East Asia, Edward Elgar Publishing, pp 87-104. Also as HWWI (Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut) Research Papers: International Trade and Development, November 2009.
2009“Credit card lending distress in Korea in 2003”, in Household debt: implications for monetary policy and financial stability, BIS Papers No 46, pp 95 -106, 2009 (co-authored Taesoo Kang). (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap46.htm).
2009“Implications of refined renminbi effective exchange rates with Asian entrepôt and intra-regional trade”, in Y Cheung and K Wong (ed) China and Asia: Economic and Financial Interactions, Routledge, pp 178-193, 2009 (co-authored Fung, Kau, McCauley).
2008“Do China’s capital controls still bind? — Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation”, in Emerging East Asia and the World Economy: New Powers, New Problems, edited by B Eichengreen, Y Park and C Wyplosz, Oxford University Press, pp 312-340, 2008 (co-authored with R McCauley). (http://www.oup.com/uk/catalogue/?ci=9780199235889 )
2006Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, BIS Papers No 26, February (co-editor). Chinese translation by China Financial Publishing House, October. “Developing corporate bond markets in Asia: a synopsis of the Kunming discussions”, BIS Papers No. 26, February, pp. 1-6, 2006 (co-authored with J Gyntelberg and E Remonola). (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap26.htm)
2006“Developing corporate bond markets in Asia—a background paper”, Developing corporate bond markets in Asia, BIS Papers No. 26, pp 13-21, 2006 (co-authored with J Gyntelberg and E Remonola). (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap26.htm)
2006“Sharing China’s bank restructuring bill”, in “Who foots China’s bank restructuring bill?” in The Turning Point in China’s Economic Development, R Garnaut and L Song (ed), Australian National University Press, pp 103-127, 2006.
2005“Opening markets through a regional bond fund: lessons from ABF2”, in Proceedings of Deepening Financial Sector Reforms and Regional Cooperation in South Asia, pp 65-80, 2005.
2004“Effectiveness of China’s capital controls: some empirical evidence” in Financial Interdependence and Exchange Rate Regimes in East Asia, M Kawai (ed), Conference Proceedings, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan, 2004.
2003China’s capital account liberalization: international perspectives, BIS Papers No 15, (co-edited with R McCauley). Introduction to China’s capital account liberalization: international perspectives, BIS Papers No. 15, 2003 (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap15.htm )
2003“Opening China’s capital account amid ample dollar liquidity”, BIS Papers No 15, “China’s capital account liberalization: international perspectives”, 2003 (co-authored with R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/bppdf/bispap15.htm )
2001“Currency regime and legal obstacles to market integration in Asia: a view from Hong Kong”, in Strategic Perspectives on Capital Markets of the 21st Century, edited by Albert Bressand, Promethee, France, pp 157-164, 2001.
2001“Economic growth and instability in China”, in Growth without Miracle – Readings on the Chinese Economy in the Era of Reform, edited by R Garnaut, Oxford University Press, 2001 (co-authored R Garnaut).
1996The Third Revolution in the Chinese Countryside, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1996 (co-editor).
1994“China’s income distribution in the 1980s” in Goodman and Hooper (ed) China’s Quiet Revolution: New Interactions between State and Society, Allen & Urwin, 1994.
1993Grain in China, The Australian Government Publication Services, The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Canberra (co-authored with R Garnaut and Justin Lin), 1993.
2017“The monetary policy rule in China: from inflation-accommodating to anti-inflation policy”, BIS Working Paper No 641, June 2017 (co-authored with Eric Girardin and Sandrine Lunven). (http://www.bis.org/publ/work641.pdf)
2017“A Rebalancing Chinese Economy: Drivers and Challenges”, Global Research Unit Working Paper #2017-010 (co-authored with Ivan Roberts and Gerard Kelly). (https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232017-010%20Ma%20Roberts%20Kelly.pdf ).
2016“China’s debt challenge: stylised facts, drivers and policy implications”, Australia-China Research Institute Working Paper, No. 201602, University of Technology Sydney, (co-authored with James Laurenceson). http://www.australiachinarelations.org/content/acri-working-paper-china%E2%80%99s-debt-challenge-stylised-facts-drivers-and-policy-implications .
2016“China’s debt challenge: stylised facts, drivers and policy implications”, City University of Hong Kong’s Global Research Unit Working Paper #2016-020 https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232016-020%20Guonan%20M.pdf.
2016“Can the Chinese bond market facilitate a globalizing renminbi?” Bank of Finland BOFIT Discussion Paper 1/2016, February; and City University of Hong Kong Global Research Unit Working Paper #2016-011 (co-authored with Wang Yao). http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Pages/dp0116.aspx and https://www.cb.cityu.edu.hk/ef/doc/GRU/WPS/GRU%232016-011%20MAG.pdf.
2016“Can the Chinese bond market facilitate a globalizing renminbi”, Fung Global Institute Working Paper in May 2015: http://www.asiaglobalinstitute.hku.hk/en/can-chinese-bond-market-facilitate-globalizing-renminbi/ .
2015 “A compelling case for Chinese Monetary Easing”, Bruegel Policy Contribution, No 2015/06, April. http://www.bruegel.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/879-a-compelling-case-for-chinese-monetary-easing/ .
2015“對中國基礎通貨膨脹指標的研究”, 中國人民銀行工作論文 No.2015/5 (PBC Working Paper No.2015/5), April 2015 (co-authored with M Amstad and Ye Huan). http://www.pbc.gov.cn/image_public/UserFiles/yanjiuju/upload/File/2015年第5号-对中国基础通货膨胀指标的研究.pdf.
2014“Developing an underlying inflation gauge for China”, BIS Working Paper No 465, September (https://www.bis.org/publ/work465.pdf); Bruegel Working Paper 2014/11 (http://www.bruegel.org/publications/publication-detail/publication/853-developing-an-underlying-inflation-gauge-for-china/).
2014“Financial openness of China and India — Implications for capital account liberalisation”, Capital account liberalization in China: the need for a balanced approach, K P Gallagher (ed.), Pardee Center Task Force Reports, Boston University Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future, pp 11-31 (co-authored with R McCauley) http://www.bu.edu/pardee/files/2014/10/Pardee_TaskReport_Lib_China.pdf. The Chinese version http://press-files.anu.edu.au/downloads/press/p325731/pdf/ch122.pdf.
2014“China’s High Saving Puzzle”, IZA Discussion Paper No 7223:  http://ftp.iza.org/dp7223.pdf.
2013“Global and euro imbalances: China and Germany”, BIS Working Paper No 424, September: http://www.bis.org/publ/work424.htm.
2013“Is China or India more financially open?”, BIS Working Paper, No 410, April. http://www.bis.org/publ/work410.htm .
2013“China’s evolving reserve requirements”, BIS Working Paper No 360, November 2011 (http://www.bis.org/publ/work360.pdf ).
2012“China’s reserve requirements: practices, effects and implications”, Bank of Finland Institute for Economies Transition Discussion Papers No 30/2011, (http://www.suomenpankki.fi/bofit_en/tutkimus/tutkimusjulkaisut/dp/Pages/dp3011.aspx)
2011“Renminbising China’s Foreign Assets”, CESifo Working Paper No. 3009, 2010: (http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1590130).  Also as HKIMR Working Paper No.16/2010: (http://www.hkimr.org/general_papers.asp?year_range_id=11&id=249)
2011“Renminbising China’s Foreign Assets”, HKIMR Working Paper No.16/2010: (http://www.hkimr.org/general_papers.asp?year_range_id=11&id=249)
2011“The evolving renminbi regime and implications for Asian currency stability”, BIS Working Papers No 321, June 2010: (http://www.bis.org/publ/work321.htm )
2010“China’s high saving rate: myth and reality”, International Economics, BIS Working Paper No 312, June 2010: (http://www.bis.org/publ/work312.htm )
2009 “China’s evolving external wealth and rising creditor position”, BIS Working Papers, No 286, 2009 (http://www.bis.org/publ/work286.htm).
2009“Learning by doing in market reform: lessons from a regional bond fund”, (co-authored with E Remonola), HWWI (Hamburgisches WeltWirtschafts Institut) Research Papers: International Trade and Development, November 2009.
2007“Do China’s capital controls still bind? — Implications for monetary autonomy and capital liberalisation”, BIS Working Papers, No 233, (co-authored with R McCauley).  https://www.bis.org/publ/work233.htm Chinese translation: Chinese Academy of Social Sciences Review, No 6, October 2008 (http://ssic.cass.cn/yb/6/4-2.html )
2006“Estimation of Asian effective exchange rates: a technical note”, BIS Working Papers, No. 217 (co-authored with S Fung, M Klau and R McCauley). (http://www.bis.org/publ/work217.htm)
2007“Who pays China’s bank restructuring bill?”, CEPII Working Paper, No. 2006-04: (http://www.cepii.fr/anglaisgraph/workpap/summaries/2006/wp06-04.htm)
2004Public asset management companies in East Asia, FSI Occasional Paper No 3, February (co-authored B Fung, J George and S Hohl). (http://www.bis.org/fsi/fsipapers03.htm)
2002“China’s asset management corporations”, BIS Working Papers No. 115, Bank for International Settlements, (co-authored B Fung). (http://www.bis.org/publ/work115.htm)