Faculty of Business Administration

FBE Brown Bag Seminar

In the Shadow of the ECB: Monetary Policy in Eastern Europe

Prof. Makram EL-SHAGI

Professor, School of Economics, Henan University

Abstract

This paper examines the effects of shocks originating in the Euro Area on key macroeconomic variables in Central and Eastern European countries (CEEC). In particular, we focus on the impact of shocks to economic activity and monetary conditions on output, prices, money, and interest rates in CEEC. Although our analysis includes several countries that are not members of the European Monetary System (i.e. they do not aspire to introduce the Euro) and countries that are not even EU members, we find no meaningful monetary independence in any of the countries. The vast majority of the variation in monetary variables is caused by Euro Area shocks. Moreover, the impact of domestic shocks dies out quickly, while the impact of Euro Area shocks persists.

Date: 04 Dec 2019 (Wednesday)

Time: 15:00-16:00

Venue: E22-4069

A Short Biography

Prof. EL-SHAGI obtained his PhD degree in economics from the University of Mannheim, and served as a senior economist in the Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (Germany). He has become a professor of the School of Economics at Henan University (China) since 2014 and the director of the Center for Financial Stability and Development since 2017. Prof. EL-SHAGI is very productive in his economic and financial research with various publications appearing in mainstream journals such as Economics Letters, Journal of Macroeconomics, European Journal of Political Economy, Journal of International Money and Finance, Journal of Financial Stability, International Journal of Forecasting, Review of International Economics, Cambridge Journal of Economics, etc.