Forecasting Under Uncertainty: Workforce Instability and Management Earnings Guidance
Dr. Emma Wenyi SUN
Research Assistant Professor in Finance
FBA, UM
Date: 15 September 2025 (Monday)
Time: 13:00-14:00
Venue: FBA Lobby
Abstract
In this paper, we examine the impact of workforce instability on managers’ forecast issuance. Using state-by-state abortion ban events in the U.S. as an exogenous shock, we find that increased workforce instability leads to a significant decline in the issuance of management earnings forecasts, particularly long-term and negative forecasts. Our analysis also reveals gender differences in voluntary disclosure by senior management, with male CFOs reducing forecast issuance more than female CFOs following the abortion ban events. Additionally, the main effect is driven by firms operating in low-tech industries or offering more low-paying jobs. Overall, our results uncover the deterrent role of labor market risk on the voluntary corporate disclosure.
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