University of Macau, Faculty of Business Administration
Prof. Rose Neng LAI (黎寧)2019-03-01T09:19:15+00:00

Prof. Rose Neng LAI

Professor in Finance
Department of Finance and Business Economics
Faculty of Business Administration

Dean
Honours College
Avenida da Universidade, Taipa, Macau, China

Contact Information

Room: E12-G023 / E22-4065
Telephone: (853) 8822-4728
Fax:(853) 8822-2332
E-mail: roselai
  • Ph.D in Finance, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China, 2001
  • MBA in Finance / Management Science, Simon Fraser University, Vancouver, Canada, 1992
  • BBA in Acountancy, University of East Asia, Macao SAR, China, 1990
  • Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, 2013 – present
  • Associate Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, 2006 – 2013
  • Assistant Professor, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, 2001 – 2006
  • Lecturer, Faculty of Business Administration, University of Macau, 1995 – 2001
  • Lecturer/Convenor for International Affairs, Centre for Pre-University Studies, University of Macau, 1993 – 1995
  • Undergraduate Courses
    • Applied Mathematics for Economics (ECIF210)
    • Risk and Insurance (FINC440)
    • Business Mathematics (MSOR100)
    • Survey Calculus (MSOR103)
    • Operations Research I (MSOR330)
    • Financial Management I (FINC300)
    • Derivative Instruments (FINC460)
    • Econometrics I (ECIF310)
    • Financial Research Methods I (FINC362)
    • Financial Research Methods II (FINC461)
    • Managerial Finance in Integrated Resorts (FINC713)
    • Financial Management (FINC210)
    • Derivative Securities (FINC302)
  • Postgraduate Courses
    • Research Methods for Finance (PhD Level) (FINC811)
    • Research Seminars in Finance (PhD Level) (FINC810)
    • Research Writing (PhD Level) (YGRW800)
    • Research Ethics (PhD Level) (YGRE800)
    • Derivatives (FINC727)
    • Managerial Finance in Integrated Resorts (MIRM604)
    • Advance Topics in Finance (IMBB132)
    • Financial Engineering and Derivatives (IMBB127)
    • Applied Research Methods (IMBC131)
  1. “Outstanding Academic Staff Award 2017/2018” of the University of Macau.
  2. “Edwin S. Mills Real Estate Economics 2017 Best Paper Award” of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association for “U.S. House Prices Over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency” published in the Real Estate Economics
  3. “1st Prize of the Best Paper Award” of the 2016 Global Chinese Real Estate Congress Annual Conference
  4. 2009-2012 Academic Award of the University of Macau
  5. 2007-2009 Research Award (Faculty-level) of the University of Macau
  6. 2007-2009 Service Award (Faculty-level) of the University of Macau
  7. Young Scholar Award 2011 by the University of Macau
  8. “Issues on Banking – Securitization, Contagion, Bank Regulatory Policies, and Contingent Convertible Bonds”, offered by the University of Macau Research Committee, MYRG2016-00104-FBA, University of Macau (January 2017 – December 2019).
  9. “Problem of and Solutions to Shadow Banking in China — Theoretical and Empirical Studies”, offered by the University of Macau Research Committee, MYRG2015-00085-FBA, University of Macau (April 2015 – August 2018).
  10. “The Performance of International Infrastructure Mutual Funds”, offered by the University of Macau Research Committee, MYRG017(Y1-L1)-FBA11-LNR , University of Macau (2011-2012).
  11. “Herding and Market Phenomena”, offered by the Research Committee, RG004/09-10S/11R/LNR/FBA, University of Macau (2010-2011).
  12. Option to Change Strategy Between Audits, offered by the Research Committee, RG042/06-07S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2007)
  13. The Role of Liquidity at Risk in Value at Risk: The Case of Hong Kong, offered by the Research Committee, RG043/06-07/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2007)
  14. A New Regime on Housing Price Bubbles, offered by the Research Committee, RG010/05-06S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2006)
  15. Do Investors in the Hong Kong Stock Market Herd?, offered by the Research Committee, RG012/05-06S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2006)
  16. Compound Development Options with Relocation and Demolition, offered by the Research Committee, RG011/05-06S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2006)
  17. Compound Development Options with Relocation and Demolition, offered by the Research Committee, RG011/05-06S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2006)
  18. Price Discovery of Presale of Residential Units? An IPO Analogy, offered by the Research CommitteeRG061/01-02S/LN/FBA, University of Macau (2002)
  19. Optimizing Presale Launches of Residential Units? Real Options Approach, offered by the Research Committee, University of Macau (2001)
  • Real Estate Finance and Economics
  • Risk Management and Real Options
  • Financial Stability
  • Behavioral Finance
  1. Lai, Rose Neng and Robert A. Van Order. (2018). A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing the US and Chinese Bubbles Housing Markets, Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, forthcoming.
  2. Xu, Ruihui and Rose Neng Lai. (2018). Optimism-driven Decisions of Real Estate Developers Under Demand Uncertainty, Journal of Real Estate Research, 40(2), 267-308. (an earlier version was awarded for the “1st Prize of the Best Paper Award” of the 2016 Global Chinese Real Estate Congress Annual Conference)
  3. Lai, Rose Neng and Robert A. Van Order. (2017). U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency, Real Estate Economics, 45(2), 259-300. (Awarded for the “Edwin S. Mills Real Estate Economics 2017 Best Paper Award” of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association).
  4. Ciochetti,  Brian A., Rose Neng Lai, James D. Shilling.  2015. The Role of Public Markets in International Real Estate Diversification, International Real Estate Review, 18(2), 155-175.
  5. Bihing Huang, Yang Zhang, Rose Neng Lai. 2014. Relationship of Chinese Real Estate Market and Stock Market – a PMG Analysis, Journal of Real Estate, 1(2), 51-61. (Chinese) [黄必红,张洋,黎宁 (2014)《中国房地产市场与股票市场关系研究——基于混合组均值(PMG)的动态面板实证分析》载《不动产研究》第1期,第51-61页。]
  6. Lai, Rose Neng and Robert A. Van Order. 2014. Securitization, Risk-taking and the Option to Change Strategy, Real Estate Economics, 42(2), 343-362.
  7. Chen, Jiajin* and Rose Neng Lai. 2013. Pricing Relocation-Redevelopment Projects for City Expansion  ¾ the Case in China, Real Estate Economics, 41(4), 925-957.
  8. Rose Neng Lai, and Yang Zhang. 2012. The Myth or the Fact of Housing for Young People in Macao, Journal of Youth Studies, 29(15).
  9. Lai, Rose Neng and Robert A. Van Order. 2010. Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a Bubble, Real Estate Economics, 38(4), 753-773.
  10. Zhou, Tingyu and Rose Neng Lai 2009. Herding and Information Based Trading, Journal of Empirical Finance, 16(3), 388-393.
  11. Lai, Rose Neng, Raymond Wai Man So and Ricardo Chi Seng Siu 2007. What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau, Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, 2(3), 1-22.
  12. Zhou, Tingyu and Rose Neng Lai 2007. Herding and Positive Feedback Trading on Property Stock, Journal of Property Investment and Finance, 26(2), 110-131.
  13. Lai, Rose Neng, Ko Wang and Jing Yang 2007. Stickiness of Rental Rates and Developers. Option Exercise Strategies. Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 34(1), 159-188.
  14. Zhang, Zhihua and Rose Neng Lai. 2006. Pricing Efficiency and Arbitrage: Hong Kong Derivatives Markets Revisited, Applied Financial Economics, 16(16), 1185-1198
  15. Lai, Rose Neng, Seow Eng ONG, and Tien Foo Sing. 2006. Values of Mortgages with Top-up Payment Options, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance, 9(5), 801-824
  16. Lai, Rose Neng, Ko Wang and Yuqing Zhou. 2004. Sale before Completion of Development: Pricing and Strategy, Real Estate Economics, 32(2), 329-357
  17. Lai, Neng and Ko Wang. 1999. Land-Supply Restrictions, Developer Strategies and Housing Policies: The Case in Hong Kong, International Real Estate Review, 2(1), 143-159
  1. Xu, Rui-hui and Rose Neng Lai. 2018. 銀行樂觀情緒、信息準確度及資產証券化, People’s Bank of China Working Paper No. 2018/1.
  2. Cao, Xiaping, Bihong Huang, and Rose Neng Lai. 2018. The Impact of Exogenous Demand Shock on the Housing Market: Evidence from the Home Purchase Restriction Policy in the People’s Republic of China,  Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper Series, No. 824 (March 2018).
  3. Rose Neng Lai, and Robert Van Order. 2009. Momentum and House Price Growth in the U.S.: Anatomy of a “Bubble”. Stephen Ross School of Business at University of Michigan Working Paper No.1124.
  4. Rose Neng Lai, and Robert Van Order. 2009. Risk Taking, Guarantees, Securitization and the Option to Change Strategy: The Economics of Pulling a Fast One. Stephen Ross School of Business at University of Michigan Working Paper No.1123.
  5. Lai, Rose Neng, and Robert Van Order. 2007. A Regime Shift Model of the Recent Housing Bubble in the United States. Stephen Ross School of Business at University of Michigan Working Paper No.1084.
  6. Ian, Ka Ieng and Rose Neng Lai. 2002. Challenges to Bond Issuance in Macao, AMCM Quarterly Bulletin, Issue 5, 7-58
  7. Lai, Rose Neng. 2002. Interaction between the Insurance Industry and the Local Economy, Journal of Macau Studies, 15, 144-160
  8. Lai, Rose Neng. 1999. Strengthening the Macau Economy via Offshore Businesses and a Futures Exchange, in 1st Century Macau City Planning Guideline Study: Special Report 1999-2020.
  1. “A Tale of Two Countries: Comparing Booms, Busts and Bubbles in the US and Chinese Housing Markets” (with Robert A. Van Order). 53rd American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Annual Conference, Philadelphia, January, 2018. AND Cambridge-Florida-Singapore 2017 Real Estate Finance & Investment Symposium, jointly organized by the National University of Singapore, University of Cambridge, and University of Florida, September, 2017.
  2. “FinTech and Financial Fragility” (with Robert A. Van Order). International Finance and Banking Society (IFABS) Asia 2017 Ningbo Conference, jointly organized by University of Nottingham Ningbo China & New York University (NYU) Shanghai, in Ningbo, China, September, 2017.
  3. “On the Efficient Design of the Reverse Mortgage: Structure, Marketing, and Funding” (with Robert C. Merton). 52nd American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Annual Conference, in Chicago, January, 2017.
  4. “Shadow Banking and the Property Market in China”, (with Robert A Van Order). 52nd American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Annual Conference, in Chicago, January, 2017.
  5. “Decisions of Real Estate Developers under Uncertainty and Heterogeneous Beliefs” (with Rui-hui Xu, PhD student). 2016 Annual Conference of Global Chinese Real Estate Congress, in Hangzhou, July 2016 (1st prize of the Best Paper Award).
  6. “U.S. House Prices over the Last 30 Years: Bubbles, Regime Shifts and Market (In)Efficiency” (with Robert A. Van Order). 50th American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Conference (an ASSA Annual Conference) organized by the AREUEA, in Boston, USA, January 2015.
  7. “Disincentives for Risk-Taking in Mortgage and Other Financial Markets: Adjusting Management Remunerations” (with Robert A. Van Order). 49th American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Conference (an ASSA Annual Conference) organized by the AREUEA, in Philadelphia, USA, January 2014.
  8. “Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships between House and Stock Prices in China: Evidence from Pooled Mean Group Estimation” (with Bihong Huang and Yang Zhang). 26th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference, organized by the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia, 17 – 19 December, 2013.
  9. ” Housing Prices and Stock Returns in China” (with Bihong Huang and Yang Zhang). 5th Global Chinese Real Estate Congress Annual Conference organized by the Peking University, in Beijing, China, July 2013. (won the “Best Paper Award 3rd prize )
  10. “After the Bubble Burst – A New Phase or a Return to History in the US Housing Market” (with Robert A. Van Order). Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference 2013, organized by Wasada University and Kyoto University, in Kyoto, Japan, June 2013.
  11. “China’s House Price Moments in Global Financial Crisis” (with Bihong Huang and Yang Zhang). 2013 Chinese Economists Society (CES) Annual Conference, Chengdu, China, June 2013.
  12. “Liquidity, Fragility and the Credit Crunch: A Theoretical Explanation and the Introduction of Contingent Convertible Bonds” (with Robert A. Van Order). 25th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference organized by the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia, December 2012.
  13. “The Benefits of International Real Estate Diversification: New Evidence using a Rational, Sentiment-Based Model of Private and Public Equity Securities” (with James D. Shilling and Brian A. Ciochetti). DePaul University International Real Estate Symposium, organized by the DePaul University, Macau, July 2012.
  14. “CoCo Bonds as an Impediment to More Risk-Taking and an Alternative to Bankruptcy in Mortgage Markets” (with Robert A. Van Order). 47th American Real Estate And Urban Economics Association (AREUEA) Conference organized by the AREUEA and jointed hosted with the American Economic Association (AEA), in Chicago, USA, January 2012.
  15. “CoCo Bonds as an Alternative to Bankruptcy and ‘Too Big to Fail’ ” (with Robert A. Van Order). 16th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference and 2011 AREUEA International Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society, the AREUEA and the Konkuk University, in Jeju Island, Korea, July 2011.
  16. “Investors’ Diverse Behavior on Herding Cross-listed Firms – the Case of Chinese Firms” (with Yiyi Wang). 2011 Asian Finance Association Annual Conference, jointly organized by the Asian Finance Association and the University of Macau, in Macau, July 2011.
  17. “Herding on Dual-listed Firms: The Case of Chinese Firms” (with Yiyi Wang). II World Finance Conference, in Rhodes Island, Greece, June, 2011.
  18. “Risk Taking, Securitization and the Option to Change Strategy” (with Robert A. Van Order). European Real Estate Society 2010 Annual Conference jointly organized by the European Real Estate Society and the SDA Bocconi School of Management of the University of Bocconi, University of Bocconi, Milan, Italy, June 2010.
  19. “Liquidity-induced Fragility in Real Estate Securitization?” (with Robert A. Van Order). 14th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference and 2009 AREUEA International Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society, the AREUEA, UC-Berkeley and UCLA, in Los Angeles, July 2009.
  20. “Observational Influence on Sales Launch Behavior of Residential Developers?” (with Rhea Tingyu Zhou). 14th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference and 2009 AREUEA International Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society, the AREUEA, UC-Berkeley and UCLA, in Los Angeles, July 2009; and 1st Global Chinese Real Estate Congress Annual Conference jointly organized by GCREC and the Beijing Renmin University, in Beijing, August 2009.
  21. “The Role of Liquidity in Real Estate Securitization” (with Robert Van Order). 13th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, in Shanghai, July 2008.
  22. “Investment Strategy for Redevelopment Projects under Uncertainty” (with Sandy Jiajin Chen).13th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society and Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, in Shanghai, July 2008.
  23. “The Role of Liquidity in Value at Risk — The Case of Hong Kong?” (with Cass Cheng-Po Lei). The 20th Australasian Finance and Banking Conference 2007 jointly organized by the School of Banking & Finance and the Asia Pacific Financial Research Center at the University of New South Wales, in Sydney, Australia, December, 2007.
  24. “Presales, ‘Overbuilding’ and ‘Overpricing'” (with Su Han Chan and Jing Yang). 12th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference and 2007 AREUEA International Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society and the University of Macau, in Macau, July 2007.
  25. “Options to Change Strategy Between Audits in Mortgage Insurance?” (with Robert Van Order). 12th Asian Real Estate Society Annual Conference and 2007 AREUEA International Conference jointly organized by the Asian Real Estate Society and the University of Macau, in Macau, July 2007.
  26. “What Does a Concept Attract? The Case of Gaming in Macau” (with Raymond Wai Man So and Ricardo Chi Seng Siu). The University of California at Riverside Growth of Gambling & Prediction Markets Conference on “The Growth of Gambling and Prediction Markets: Economic and Financial Implications??? jointly organized by the University of California at Riverside and the Economica, May 20-22, 2007; and The 15th Annual Conference on Pacific Basin Finance, Economics, Accounting and Management organized by the School of Business, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, at the Equatorial Hotel in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam on July 20 and July 21, 2007.
  27. “A New Perspective of Market Behavior with Spurious Herding?” (with Rhea Zhou Tingyu). The 19th Annual Australasian Finance and Banking Conference organized by the School of Banking and Finance of the University of New South Wales, Sydney, December 2006.
  28. “A Regime Shift Model of the Recent Housing Bubble in the United States” (with Robert Van Order). The Maastricht-MIT-Cambridge Real Estate Finance and Investment Symopsium 2006 organized by the Limburg Institute of Financial Economics of the Maastricht University, the MIT Center for Real Estate, and the Department of Land Economy of the University of Cambridge, in Maastricht, the Netherlands, August 2006
  29. “The Compound Option to Develop in China” (with Sandy JiaJing Chen). The 11th Asian Real Estate Society International Conference, in Vancouver, Canada, July, 2006
  30. “The Power of Hedging Against Inflation with Real Estate: The Hong Kong Experience?”, (with Sammi K.W. Ho) Proceedings of the 10th Asian Real Estate Society International Conference, Sydney, Australia, July 2005.
  31. “Stickiness of Property Rental Rates and Developers’ Games”, (with Ko Wang and Jing Yang.) The Cambridge-Maastricht Symopsium 2005 organized by the Land Department of University of Cambridge and the Maastricht University, Cambridge, UK, June 2005.
  32. “Risk versus Opportunities: Foreign Real Estate Investments in China”, (with Zhengrong Zhao) Proceedings of the 9th Asian Real Estate Society International Conference, Delhi, India, August 2004
  33. “Stickiness of Property Rental Rates and Developers’ Games”, (with Ko Wang and Yuqing Zhou.) Proceedings of the 9th Asian Real Estate Society International Conference, Delhi, India, August 2004
  34. “Pre-sale as a Risk Sharing Strategy: A Real Options Approach”, (with Ko Wang and Yuqing Zhou.) The Skye Conference organized by the University of Aberdeen, Isle of Skye, Scotland, August 2003
  35. “The Impact of Rare Events on Development Strategies: The Case of Residential Pre-sale Units”. The International Workshop on the Nexus between the Macroeconomy and the Housing, organized by the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Lingnan University, Hong Kong, August 2003
  36. “The Role of Real Options on Real Estate Issues”. The International Workshop on the Nexus between the Macroeconomy and the Housing, organized by the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Lingnan University, Hong Kong, August 2003
  37. “Mortgage Values of Lenders and Borrowers with Top-up Payments”. (with Seow Eng Ong and Tien-Foo Sing.) The Cambridge-Maastricht Symposium 2003 organized by the Land Department of University of Cambridge and the Maastricht University, Cambridge, U.K., June 2003
  38. “The Impact of Rare Events on Development Options”, (with with Ko Wang and Yuqing Zhou.) Proceedings of the AsRES/AREUEA Joint International Conference 2002, Seoul, Korea, July 2002
  39. “Analysis of Hotel Overbuilding Based on Real Options Exercise Strategies” (with Louisa H.M. Ng and Yuqing Zhou). Proceedings of the 6th Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) Conference, Tokyo, Japan, August 2001; and The First World Congress of the International Real Estate Society, Anchorage, Alaska, July 2001
  40. “Over-confidence and Over-building in Hotel Market” (with Lousie H.M. Ng and Yuqing Zhou). CU2 Joint Conference in Hospitality and Tourism: International Hospitality Industry Evolution 2001, organized by the Chinese University of Hong Kong and the Cornell University, Hong Kong, January 2001
  41. “Optimal Presale Strategies of Residential Units” (with Yuqing Zhou). Proceedings of the 5th Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) Annual Conference, Beijing, China, July 2000
  42. “Volatility of Hong Kong Housing Market under the SAR Government”. Proceedings of the Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) Third Annual Conference, Taipei, Taiwan, August 1998

PhD Students

  • XU Ruihui, Nicole (Graduated in August 2017)
  • International Real Estate Review, Executive Editor, 2008 – present
  • Clare Hall, University of Cambridge, Life Member (elected in November 2010)
  • Asian Real Estate Society (AsRES) – Director (since 2008), President(2006/2007), President-Elect(2005/2006), Vice President(2004/2005), Inaugural member(1996/2004)
  • Global Chinese Real Estate Congress (GCREC) – Executive director, and founding member (since 2007), President(2011/2012),Vice President(2010/2011),
  • American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association – member
  • European Real Estate Society – member
  • American Real Estate Society – member
  • American Finance Association – member